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Advisor
Rego79
Posts: 25
Registered: 04-17-2010
Accepted Solution

Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

  According to Robert Shiller Yale Economist (this man predicted the current housing crash) 1. House prices are still only halfway back down to fair value. 2. Prices don't usually stop at fair value. 3. Obama's plan wont turn housing around. Robert Shiller in his book called Irrational Exuberance has a chart showing a history of home values from 1890 to the present day, it can be easily found online using google. I think everyone who is thinking of buying a home should take a good look at this chart. NOW IS NOT A GOOD TIME TO BUY, house prices will continue to drop.

ZipRealty Agent
DSharp
Posts: 20
Registered: 04-01-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

I wonder what this world would be like with out Irrational Exuberance; do dreams really come true? Look around, if you can dream it, you can make it come true. In any economy,  a dream come true is priceless. Shot for the stars and grab your piece of the American dream; homeownership.

Occasional Advisor
ishen
Posts: 11
Registered: 03-28-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

Home prices are predicted to continue to fall through 2010 (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/business/economy/07view.html), and it should. Unemployment is all around and that does not make people comfortable with buying a house and carrying a mortgage. The end of the tax credit has certainly seen a fall of demand, and inventory is rising (http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/07/15/trouble-ahead-housing-inventory-rises-in-many-markets-i...).

 

Here is another great recent article that is a good read: http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/16/real-estate-housing-personal-finance-home-bargains.html?boxes=Homep...

ZipRealty Agent
johnfalto
Posts: 51
Registered: 03-30-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

Let's forget about the market soothsayers who will be selling their wares because of the doom and gloom. Instead look at the economic indicators and consumer confidence. Yes, it seems that the sky is falling, and prices will continue to drop. Unfortunately no one can predict how much will they drop, or for how long.

 

However, the question remains do you buy now, or wait? To me, as a Realtor and a real estate investor, the only time that it is going to be good to buy, is when it makes financial sense to you. If prices come down a bit more, then fine that is what happens but the problem for many is that they the only time that they know that the price has bottomed out, is when the price has gone up, past the point they first looked.

 

If it makes sense, do it. If not - then move out of the way.

ZipRealty Staff
Mona Hope
Posts: 6
Registered: 03-30-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

 I believe that the individual has to consider 'which' market or area they are considering buying in. Several markets have shown improvement and actually an increase in pricing...while there are many that are still dropping. Clients should do their homework and always consult your area Realtor for the individual neighborhood statistics. Numbers don't lie.

ZipRealty Agent
Eric Sagaspe
Posts: 258
Registered: 03-30-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

My grandpa used to say "those who live by the crystal ball eat glass," but I'll boldly give you a prediction:

 

In the future, prices may drop, stay flat, or go up.  

 

You can find arguments for every scenario.

 

Arguments for a drop in price: If interest rates go up, prices may go down. As long as the recovery remains jobless people wont buy, therefore prices may go down. When the "shadow inventory" hits the market prices may go down.

 

Arguments for an increase in price: If anything, rates have been going down not up, as long as it lasts (and it could last forever by the way) prices will be maintained. Inflation: If inflation sets in people will see homes as edges against inflation and that will prop up prices (I ran into an old guy in Santa Monica once who told be that he had bought his GI house back in 1945 for $15,000, now he could sell his home for $800k). If the dollar keeps dropping in value, foreign investors may start buying heavily in the US. If jobs a created, more people may buy and this may help prices. 

 

If several of these phenomena cancel each other out prices may remain flat.

 

Perhaps it's time to simply remember the real reason why we buy homes, and that's to provide stable shelter for our families, to be able to improve the house and decorate the way we like, to have an time horizon when the house is paid off and we will live rent-free. If you want to persist in seeing a Real Estate as an investment vehicle perhaps your could look at buying income properties. I have sold several of them this year that actually had a positive cash flow in desirable areas. Properties that start putting money in your pocket immediately!

 

Advisor
Rego79
Posts: 25
Registered: 04-17-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

 I agree we can't be 100% certain about the future of the housing market. The market depends on people and we don't know for certain what people are going to do. However we can be certain about what people have done in the last 4 years, since the crash .Seeing that since the beginning of the crash in 2006, prices have fallen half way back to where they were in the late 1990's (AKA fair value) and show no signs of stopping and the economy is not good. I would say if I were a gambling man I know where I'd place my bet. People who were willing to pay outrageous prices for houses and the banks who lended to them really messed this market up, it's really a shame price should have never never went as high as they did.

Regular Advisor
Jazzman
Posts: 71
Registered: 08-08-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

 


johnfalto wrote:

Let's forget about the market soothsayers who will be selling their wares because of the doom and gloom. Instead look at the economic indicators and consumer confidence. Yes, it seems that the sky is falling, and prices will continue to drop. Unfortunately no one can predict how much will they drop, or for how long.

 

However, the question remains do you buy now, or wait? To me, as a Realtor and a real estate investor, the only time that it is going to be good to buy, is when it makes financial sense to you. If prices come down a bit more, then fine that is what happens but the problem for many is that they the only time that they know that the price has bottomed out, is when the price has gone up, past the point they first looked.

 

If it makes sense, do it. If not - then move out of the way.


John, as you quite rightly point out, when prices move up that is when we know we have reached bottom, but with all due respect, that is precisely what many are already aware of and are waiting for. So it's not a problem ...it's a solution! However, had the tax credits, and artifically low rates not induced the spike, no doubt fooling many into thinking we'd reached that point, we would probably be nearing a real bottom, or at least know the curve was for real without all the tampering and interferring obscuring the truth. So having lined the pockets of a few ...again, ...and fleecing the tax payer ...again, the proverbial 'can' is coming into view down the road ...again!

 

Regular Advisor
Jazzman
Posts: 71
Registered: 08-08-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

 


Rego79 wrote:

  According to Robert Shiller Yale Economist (this man predicted the current housing crash) 1. House prices are still only halfway back down to fair value. 2. Prices don't usually stop at fair value. 3. Obama's plan wont turn housing around. Robert Shiller in his book called Irrational Exuberance has a chart showing a history of home values from 1890 to the present day, it can be easily found online using google. I think everyone who is thinking of buying a home should take a good look at this chart. NOW IS NOT A GOOD TIME TO BUY, house prices will continue to drop.


Prices were not allowed to correct in many areas, and in many price ranges. Some may have ...subprime in Miami, Phoenix, Riverside etc, but there is still some rot left in the system, which all the Kings Horses are unable to salvage. Actually, I think the tax credit was a lot more 'successful' than the government had hoped for, but the argument has shifted away from 'the tail is wagging the dog', ie housing fuels the economy, to the more fundamental issues, which are unemployment and growth. The new epidemic, or prevailing mood is 'uncertainty', and even the likes of Bernanke have been infected with it. That's the big picture. To the nitty gritty, more recently, Inventory levels seem to be rising in the face of weak summer sales, but demand doesn't seem to be there to meet it. This is evidenced by super-market-style price slashing, which in some areas is 50% of all listings. Add to that the abating, but still record number of distressed properties, and many informed buyers may question whether more declines are to come. By the fall, we should have a clearer picture of how the market re-adjusted to having the props removed, and whether over-capacity is evident and demand sufficient to absorb it. Conventional wisdom (not a strong point among today's buyers and sellers) may prevail, and would suggest declines are well factored in, as market forces begin to impose their will and confound the powers that be. You won't lose by waiting. The question is how much will you gain?

 

ZipRealty Agent
cclowdus
Posts: 1
Registered: 04-08-2010

Re: Will House Prices Continue to Fall ?

Every housing market in the US can't be lumped into 1 group.  Maybe housing prices are falling in some areas, but certainly not in others.  Its irresponsible to make a blanket statement that housing prices will fall across the nation.